USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 5.4.09
The USD/JPY is trying to build on Friday’s bounce, flirting with the idea of retesting 100 while the S&P futures battle their own demons at 900. Unfortunately, yesterday’s run was backed by light volume, meaning the currency pair’s current upswing could be short-lived. The USD/JPY encounters its first test in our 3rd tier downtrend line, followed by March highs. We notice a head and shoulders formation with the USD/JPY on its right shoulder as we type. Therefore, bulls will be looking for any near-term upward movement to be supported by heavy volume if the currency pair is ready to surpass 100 and April highs.
While the upside has its apparent hurdles, the downside is backed by our 2nd tier uptrend line and the resilience the uptrend has shown thus far in 2009. The USD/JPY’s re-approach of 100 comes with the S&P futures attempting to climb above their critical 900 level. Therefore, the significance of the moment is relayed by each as investors await Thursday’s ECB meeting and the release of America’s stress test results.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 99.79, 100.56, 101.43, 102.14, and 103.15. To the downside, we see supports of 99.20, 98.56, 97.98, 97.11, and 96.33. The 100 level serves as a key psychological barrier with 95 acting as a psychological cushion. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 99.42.
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